Complexity Premia
Episode 24: Forecasting the Aussie Housing Boom

Episode 24: Forecasting the Aussie Housing Boom

April 30, 2021

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on SpotifyPodbean or Apple Podcasts.    

This special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast is an audible version of a new research paper from Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, who replicates one of the RBA’s internal models on the Australian housing market and finds that house prices are expected to appreciate by about 25% over the next few years.

You can download the full research paper with the housing forecasts, including charts and figures, here.

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

 

Episode 23: Housing Affordability Non-Crisis; Bond Market Rebound; March Performance; Bank Liquidity Issues; RBA’s QE3 Program; Credit Markets; & Budget Deficits

Episode 23: Housing Affordability Non-Crisis; Bond Market Rebound; March Performance; Bank Liquidity Issues; RBA’s QE3 Program; Credit Markets; & Budget Deficits

April 11, 2021

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on SpotifyPodbean or Apple Podcasts.    

In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including: 

  • The bond market recovery in March 2021;  
  • Our performance in the month;  
  • Complex issues with bank liquidity coverage ratios;  
  • The RBA’s QE3 program;  
  • Credit market performance;  
  • Upside surprises to Federal and State budget deficits; and
  • Australia’s housing affordability non-crisis.

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

 
 
Episode 22: The Bond Market Bloodbath; February Returns; RBA QE 3.0 and 4.0; & How the RBA’s Governor Phil Lowe Brutally Blew-Up the Bond Bandits…

Episode 22: The Bond Market Bloodbath; February Returns; RBA QE 3.0 and 4.0; & How the RBA’s Governor Phil Lowe Brutally Blew-Up the Bond Bandits…

March 14, 2021

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on SpotifyPodbean or Apple Podcasts.   

In this short episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:  

  
• The biggest bond market bloodbath since 1994; 
• Our portfolio performance in February 2021 across a range of strategies; 
• The likelihood of macro-prudential constraints being eventually applied to Aussie housing; 
• How the RBA’s governor, Phil Lowe, brutally bashed the bond market bandits; and   
• The RBA’s QE 3 and 4 programs. 

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 21: January Returns; RBA QE 1.0, 2.0, 3,0 and 4.0; WWIII; House Bubble Non-Issue; and the Reddit Rambo’s Retail Revolution

Episode 21: January Returns; RBA QE 1.0, 2.0, 3,0 and 4.0; WWIII; House Bubble Non-Issue; and the Reddit Rambo’s Retail Revolution

February 7, 2021

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on SpotifyPodbean or Apple Podcasts.   

In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:    

  • Our portfolio performance in January 2021 across a range of strategies;  
  • The RBA’s successful QE 1.0 program; 
  • Our forecasts for the RBA’s QE 2.0 program, which were validated in February; 
  • Why the RBA’s cash rate should be -3% to -4%, which will necessitate QE 3.0 and QE 4.0;   
  • The Reddit Rambo’s retail revolution, which is positive, not negative, for equities;  
  • The risk of WWIII erupting over Taiwan; and 
  • Why QE will not blow a housing bubble, as many absurdly claim. 

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 20: 2020 in Review; Outlook for 2021; Housing Forecasts; Big Left and Right Tail Risks & More

Episode 20: 2020 in Review; Outlook for 2021; Housing Forecasts; Big Left and Right Tail Risks & More

January 6, 2021

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.  

Happy New Year listeners! We are really sorry for the long delay since our last episode, but we have been super busy managing our clients’ money! In this action-packed episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, which is our first for 2021, we discuss a range of issues, including:   

  • Our portfolio performance in 2020; 
  • Our forecasts for 2021, including housing, unemployment, QE and macro markets generally;  
  • The burgeoning conflict between democracy and autocracy; and 
  • Our thoughts on the big left- and right-tail risks, including the prospect of major power conflict. 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 19: Traders vs Investors; Why Markets are Ignoring Second Waves; Central Banks Disintermediating Markets; Performance; and Turning Beta into Alpha

Episode 19: Traders vs Investors; Why Markets are Ignoring Second Waves; Central Banks Disintermediating Markets; Performance; and Turning Beta into Alpha

August 25, 2020

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple PodcastsSpotify or Podbean

 

In the latest episode of our Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of issues, including:  

  • how you can turn beta into alpha by anticipating policymakers' behaviours;
  • whether there is a difference between traders and investors (or are they actually doing exactly the same thing over different horizons);
  • why markets have been ignoring the second COVID-19 waves;
  • the long-term impact of central banks disintermediating markets, and whether Western statism is ironically coming to resemble socialist central planning; 
  • forecasting Victoria’s COVID-19 peak in late July; and
  • recent portfolio performance.

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 18: The Next Big Pivot Point for Markets – COVID-19 Vaccines; June Performance; Liquidity in Bond Markets; NAB’s Landmark Unlisted Hybrid Deal; And More

Episode 18: The Next Big Pivot Point for Markets – COVID-19 Vaccines; June Performance; Liquidity in Bond Markets; NAB’s Landmark Unlisted Hybrid Deal; And More

July 17, 2020

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Podbean.

In the latest episode of our Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of issues, including: 

  • why the emergence of effective COVID-19 vaccines will be the next big regime change for markets with both Moderna and Oxford University leading the charge towards the delivery of a solution before the end of this year; 
  • a detailed discussion of markets in June and over the last three months, including our trading activity which has encompassed more than $9.3 billion of purchases and sales over the last 6-7 months; 
  • analysis of the widely misunderstood subject of bond/credit market liquidity, or the lack thereof, which has become the topic de jour in fixed-income in 2020; and 
  • and a review of NAB’s landmark new unlisted hybrid deal, including its subsequent secondary market trading performance, which has surprised many.

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 17: Mean-Reversion; Don’t Fight the Fed; Aussie Housing; Best Investment Opportunities; Cold War 2.0

Episode 17: Mean-Reversion; Don’t Fight the Fed; Aussie Housing; Best Investment Opportunities; Cold War 2.0

June 23, 2020

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Podbean.

In this episode we discuss a range of issues, including: the best investment opportunities in fixed-income markets after a massive rally over April and May; the battle between central banks and fundamentals; the outlook for Aussie housing; and Cold War 2.0.

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 16: Impact of Covid-19 on Markets, Future Risks Including US-China Relations, Global Debt Crises, EU Disintegration and Aussie Housing

Episode 16: Impact of Covid-19 on Markets, Future Risks Including US-China Relations, Global Debt Crises, EU Disintegration and Aussie Housing

May 13, 2020

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts or Podbean.

In this episode we discuss a range of issues, including: the impact of COVID-19 on markets; our approach to thinking through and capitalising on this 1-in-100 year shock; the outlook for investors and major risks, such as US-China relations, global debt crises, EU disintegration and the Aussie housing market... 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 15: Coronavirus Special, Central Bank Action, Next Crisis To Be Triggered by Subprime Corp Loans, Aussie Housing

Episode 15: Coronavirus Special, Central Bank Action, Next Crisis To Be Triggered by Subprime Corp Loans, Aussie Housing

March 8, 2020

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts or Podbean.

In this episode we discuss a range of issues, including the current market meltdown that is rapidly emulating aspects of the GFC and which will eventually present some once-in-a-generation buying opportunities:

  • We discuss how COVID-19 is a classic case of global market failure driven by extreme information asymmetries, which Chris has repeatedly explained in his AFR columns over the last couple of weeks; 
  • How central banks need to move quickly to provide a liquidity bridge to keep markets functioning given investors are struggling to realistically price existential pandemic risks (again as outlined in Chris' AFR columns of late);
  • How the biggest risk is if central banks delay or under-club their response as lenders of last resort, which markets will punish, especially given they are rapidly depleting their prized credibility; 
  • Why the next subprime crisis will likely be triggered by subprime or high yield corporate bonds, which has been another key theme of ours for a while now; and 
  • Update on our views regarding the Australian residential property market, which we expect to remain strong.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

 
 
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