Episode 25: Forecasting Australian Herd Immunity; Vaccines Hitting 91% Adult Coverage; Borders Re-Opening in 2022; And Why the Strong Jobs Data is Not What it Seems…
Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.
In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:
- Coolabah's latest research forecasting both the advent of “herd immunity” in Australia, which we forecast will be by January or February 2022;
- When governments will be comfortable re-opening our borders, which we project will be mid 2022; and
- How the exodus of foreign workers from Australia has contributed to the largest surge in job vacancies since the 1970s and placed downward pressure on the official unemployment rate, which will likely be reversed-out once the borders re-open, creating complexities for policymakers.
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