Complexity Premia

Episode 39: Commercial Property in Crisis; Default Cycle Ramps Up; Non-Banks Under Pump; Bond Market Performance; Optimal Asset-Allocation; Best Trade Ideas; Sticky Inflation and Rates

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. 

In this relaxed and unscripted episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments shaping the current economic climate including:

• Commercial property in crisis
• Non-bank lenders under the pump
• The mother of all default cycles hits home
• Business defaults sky-rocket
• Recent bond market performance
• What makes this interest rate cycle different
• Whether inflation will be sticky and stubborn
• Optimal asset-allocation and portfolio construction
• Best trade ideas

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments

Episode 38: Winners and Losers in FY23; Best Returns for FY24; Are Rate Hikes Coming to an End; Prepare for a Persistent Pain Trade; Bonds vs Equities

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. 

In this highly anticipated, unscripted episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments progressing as we head into the 2024 Financial year including :

• FY23 performance,
• Where the RBA is heading with its cash rates,
• How far the global interest rate cycle has to go,
• Coolabah’s latest inflation analysis,
• Why bond markets keep getting rates wrong,
• What will happen to house prices,
• Signs of stress in mortgage markets,
• Whether now is the time to average into interest rate duration exposures, and
• Where to find the best risk-adjusted returns.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 37: Silicon Valley Bank; Credit Suisse; the Transfer of Wealth from Equity to Debt; Aussie Banks win in Flight to Quality; Default Cycle Ramps Up; Consumer Buffers; Best Trades and more

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. 

In this new, unscripted episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments including:  

• Recent performance,  
• The coming US recession,  
• Ramping up of the default cycle,  
• The Credit Suisse collapse, 
• Implications of Silicon Valley and CS for bank bondholders, 
• Central banks pausing rates, 
• Huge consumer buffers,  
• NSW aggressively paying-back debt,  
• Trades we like, and  
• The RBA review. 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 36: The Coming Recession and Monster Default Cycle; why Illiquidity is Concealing Huge Risks; the Rise of Risk-free Yield and what it Means for Asset-Allocation

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

In this new, punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast,  we discuss a range of important developments including: 

• The coming global recession  and monster default cycle; 
• Why illiquidity is concealing huge risks; 
• The rise of risk-free yield and what it means for asset-allocation; 
• Why there will be no post crash boom in asset prices;
• How the great housing crash has momentarily stalled but is far from over; and
• Why RBA Governor Philip Lowe should be replaced by an RBA outsider.

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 35: The RBA’s sledgehammer is yet to fall; Bank bonds paying 6.75% pa; Riskier asset-classes to get hosed

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

In this new, lively episode of the Complexity Premia podcast,  we discuss a range of important developments including: 

• How the RBA is wielding Thor's Hammer, and it has really yet to hit home
• How we are now getting major bank bonds paying interest rates as high as 6.75% pa
• How many asset-classes have yet to be properly smoked by higher rates, including commercial property, residential property, private credit, high yield bonds, venture capital, private equity etc

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 34: Reflections on 2022 and Outlook for 2023

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

In the first episode of the Complexity Premia podcast for 2023, we discuss a range of important developments including: 

• Performance across all asset-classes in 2022, including equities, bonds, housing and others
• Outlook for returns in 2023 and the valuation mispricings we consider to be most attractive
• Review of our 2022 forecasts and what we expect from the macroeconomy and financial markets in 2023

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 33: Global Recession in 2023; Housing Hammered; Equities Risks; & Bond Market Opportunities

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

In this new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including: 

• Why there will likely be a global recession in 2023 and what this means for markets
• Why the Aussie housing market is set to endure a lot more pain as 1-in-4 borrowers have their interest rates more than double
• Why there are now very interesting opportunities in bank bond markets following the large increase in risk-free rates and a substantial widening in credit spreads, which has meant that many bonds are paying superior yields to equities and property
• What higher cash rates mean for valuations across all asset-classes

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

 

Episode 32: Hunting Zombie Companies; the Next Sub-Prime Crisis in High-Yield Debt; the Outlook for Interest Rates; and the Aussie Housing Crash Accelerates

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including: 

• How according to Coolabah’s new analysis, hordes of ‘zombie’ companies in Australia and the US are going to die as economies are purged of their weakest enterprises 
• Why this is related to the explosion in private credit funds and high yield bond issuance, which have provided finance to companies that cannot typically get loans from more conservative and highly regulated banks (think of this as a new sub-prime crisis) 
• The outlook for interest rates and the various dilemmas confronting the RBA, including an independent review of its role in the policymaking firmament 
• And how the great Aussie housing crash has continued to accelerate in line with Coolabah’s contrarian forecasts 

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

 

Episode 31: US Recession; Bond Markets Bounce; Record Aussie Housing Correction; Opportunities Emerge

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.   

In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director, to discuss the worst month in history of the Aussie bond market.

In this heavy-hitting episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:

• The coming US recession;
• The bounce-back in fixed-income/bond markets in July;
• The record Aussie housing correction; and
• New investment opportunities that are now emerging given the radical increase in interest rates and credit spreads. 

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 30: How March 2022 officially became the worst month in history for the Aussie bond market.

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.   

In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director, to discuss the worst month in history of the Aussie bond market.

In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:

• The string of losses for bond indices in 2022
• The implications of higher interest rates and wider credit spreads for investors
• The silver lining for investors getting the best 10 year interest rates on Aussie government bonds
• March performance for long-only and long-short strategies
• How geopolitical risks have amplified negativity across almost all asset classes
• How sky-high vacancies will impact Australia’s jobless rate
• Why the NSW Budget could be $9.5bn better off

 

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.